A
Polling Reality Check
To: Supporters
From:
Todd Harris
Date: August
25, 2005
RE:
A polling reality check
The latest PPIC poll is a very
useful document if you are interested in what people who are not even
registered to vote thought about Governor Schwarzenegger two-and-a-half
weeks ago. That’s right. This is hardly a snapshot of California voters
today, given that they went into the field on August 8th. On top of that,
almost 25% of the sample was not even registered to vote, and over half of
them are not “likely” to vote.
Every single private poll taken in California over the past two weeks that
I have seen has shown the same thing: an increase in support for the
Governor and his reform agenda. A new private poll by Public Opinion
Strategies (POS) shows the Governor with a net favorable rating, with 48
percent approving, and 46 percent disapproving.
According to POS, “The Governor continues to receive very high marks
from his partisan base and he also retains significant support from
important swing voter groups. Seventy-eight percent of Republicans approve
of his job performance while a majority of both seniors (55%) and white
women (53%) are also positive toward him. Among the Independent voters the
Governor’s job approval is positive, 48%-40%.”
Below is a memo from pollster Neil Newhouse who recently completed the
survey.
MEMORANDUM
TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM: NEIL NEWHOUSE
RE: RECENT SURVEY RESULTS
DATE: AUGUST 24, 2005
As you know, Public Opinion
Strategies recently completed a poll of 800 likely voters in
California. The poll was conducted on August 14-16, 2005 and has a margin
of error of +/- 3.46% in 95 out of 100 cases. The purpose of this memo is
to review the job approval scores of Governor Schwarzenegger and the State
Legislature.
Key Findings
The Governor’s job approval remains positive.
Contrary to the recent released PPIC survey, which polled adults
rather than likely voters, our survey showed more Californians approve
(48%) of the Governor’s job performance than disapprove (46%).
The Governor continues to receive very high marks from his partisan base
and he also retains significant support from important swing voter groups.
Seventy-eight percent of Republicans approve of his job performance while
a majority of both seniors (55%) and white women (53%) are also positive
toward him. Among the Independent voters the Governor’s job approval is
positive, 48%-40%.
While it is not surprising the liberal Bay Area disapproves (34%-60%) of
the Governor, a
majority (52%) of the balance of the state have a positive feeling about
Schwarzenegger’s job performance.
The Legislature is perceived negatively.
The high disapproval rating for the performance of the State
Legislature has been one of
the few constants in California polling over the last few years. Only a
third of California
voters approve of the Legislature. Disapproval of the State Legislature
cuts across every
major sub-group in the poll – even a plurality of Democrats disapprove,
(38%-42%).
The Governor consistently outscores the Legislature.
Comparing the Governor’s job rating to the Legislature’s job
ratings shows an electorate
that leans more toward favoring the Governor rather than the State
Legislature. The
following table shows the Governor’s job approval rating compared to the
Legislature’s
job approval rating among key sub-groups.
|
Governor
Approval%
|
Legislature
Approval% |
Difference Score
(Governor - Legislature) |
|
| By Gender |
| Men |
49%
|
30% |
+19% |
| Women |
47% |
35% |
+12% |
|
| By Key Swing Voter Group |
| 65+ |
55% |
30% |
+25% |
| Independents |
48% |
32% |
+16% |
| Moderates |
41% |
29% |
+12% |
|
| By Media Market |
| Los Angeles |
47% |
32% |
+15% |
| Bay Area |
34% |
35% |
-1% |
| Sacramento |
57% |
33% |
+24% |
| San Diego |
59% |
36% |
+23% |
| Central Valley |
62% |
29% |
+33% |
The Bottom Line
Even after special interests groups spent millions of dollars in negative
advertising attacking the Governor’s agenda, Schwarzenegger’s job
approval rating remains a net positive in the state. Moreover, the
Governor retains significant support with the swing voter groups that
typically decide elections.
More importantly, voters across California display much more confidence in
the Governor’s
leadership than the Legislature. With the special elections looming, this
could prove to be a critical factor.
|
